There can’t be only bullish days in crypto land. In the medium term, however, crypto investors are likely to see green candles again. That’s what a look at Hodler’s net BTC holdings suggests.
Red numbers in the crypto market. Despite bullish trends in the intermediate term, the top cryptocurrencies are trading in the red for now today, Monday, August 30. Aside from outlier Solana (SOL), all of the top 10 coins (that are not stable coins) are in the red. Bitcoin (BTC), for example, is at 48,000 US dollars (USD) at the time of writing, down 0.2 percent on the day. If one extends the time horizon to seven days, negative 2.5 percent are on the books.
The situation is similar with Ether (ETH): minus 0.2 percent on the day and minus 2.2 percent over the last seven days. Still, Binance Coin (BNB) and Cardano (ADA) are both up 6.3 percent for the week.
From the point of view of Bitcoiners, BTC dominance is also not doing well these days. It has been hovering at levels lower than at any time since the spring of 2018. But for bitcoin bulls like Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, the point is clear: this is just a snapshot. If the No. 1 cryptocurrency establishes itself sustainably above $50,000, the “capital on the sidelines” should provide a BTC moonshot or two.
Bitcoin dominance is at lows near 44%.
This sidelined capital is like rocket fuel for when we start getting daily closes above $50K.
– Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) August 29, 2021
Hodler in savings mode
In general, Bitcoiners are not thinking about burying their heads in the sand these days. Because despite a short-term setback, the trend is clearly bullish, according to the tenor of market watchers:inside. The best example of optimism is a new 10-month high in the HODLer Net Position.
In shorter terms, the metric shows whether Hodler is more likely to hold or more likely to sell their bitcoin holdings. As the Glassnode chart shows, more BTC holdings are flowing into cold wallets than we’ve seen in a long time. However, it is impossible to reliably say whether the direct implication of this is a price rise in the near future. After all, the Bitcoin market is complex – it would be unreliable to deduce future price movements based on a single indicator. The tendencyr is undeniably bullish.
Stock-to-flow: bitcoin still undervalued
That bitcoin investing is a long-term game Hodler have understood. The much-cited stock-to-flow model (S2F) from PlanB is often used as a guide. But what is the state of play here? A look at the @s2fmultiple bot on Twitter reveals: according to the model, BTC is currently significantly undervalued. Because instead of being at 102,000, digital gold is currently only at $48,000.
Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-08-29, 23:59 UTCln
(actual / model)
Actual price: $48,948.35
Model price: $102,594.41
S2F multiple: -0.74 pic.twitter.com/2GgFeIAl1T-
S2F Multiple (@s2fmultiple) August 30, 2021
At least Bitcoin is fighting its way back into the trend channel highlighted in dark blue here. So the next few months are crucial: Will the model hold – or was it too bullish after all?