After several bullish weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) reached the psychological $50,000 level and failed to hold above it in its first attempt. Bitcoin dominance also continues to fail to capitalize on the strength and has been moving sideways without direction for the past 10 trading days
Bitcoin (BTC): profit-taking initiates consolidation
- BTC price: 47,395 USD (previous week: 44,767 USD)
- Resistances/targets: 48,222 USD, 50,325 USD, 51,307 USD, 53,005 USD, 54,077 USD, 55,817 USD, 57,998 USD, 59,470 USD, 61,771 USD, 64,896 USD, 67,416 USD, 69,660 USD, 70,856 USD, 76,472 USD, 77,678 USD
- Supports: 47,070 USD, 46,009 USD, 44,878 USD, 44,147 USD, 42,923 USD, 41,321 USD, 40,585 USD, 39,240 USD, 38,537 USD, 37,321 USD, 36,643 USD, 34.899 USD, 33,335 USD, 32,718 USD, 31,603 USD, 31,010 USD, 30,000 USD, 29,300 USD, 28,795 USD, 27,563 USD, 26,404 USD, 23,887 USD, 22,222 USD, 21,892 USD, 19,884 USD,
Price analysis based on the value pair BTC/USD on Coinbase
The Bitcoin bulls showed their horns in the last trading weeks and overran all attempts of the bears to push the BTC price down sustainably. The BTC price rose to the strong resistance zone between USD 50,327 and USD 51,307 at the beginning of the week before more significant profit-taking occurred. As a result, the BTC price slipped back below support at USD 48,222 today (Wednesday, August 25) and peaked at the ever-topical USD 47,070 before a slight counter-movement to the current USD 47,395 began in the last hour of trading. With many Bitcoin futures expiring next Friday, we can expect increased volatility for the time being.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
Bitcoin is currently slipping a bit and is trading a good five percentage points below its weekly high. This is quite healthy for its further price development after the strong rise in recent weeks. The bulls will now do everything they can to stabilize the BTC price optimally in the green support zone. Even a short-term drop back to the green support zone
uzsupport from EMA20 (red) and MA200 (green) at USD 46,009 is unproblematic and should be used by investors for a new entry. Even a retest of the area between 44,878 USD and 44,147 USD is conceivable. This is the upper edge of the red trend channel. If a clear countermovement to the upside occurs here at the latest, the first step is to sustainably recapture USD 48,222. A daily closing price above this chart mark activates the blue resistance zone in the area of the weekly high as a new price target. The resistance levels at USD 50,327 and USD 51,307 then come into view as targets. Only if the price manages to sustainably break through USD 51,307, a subsequent rise to the orange resistance zone between USD 53,005 and USD 54,077 is conceivable. A rise into this region would be seen as an important partial success.
The path towards an all-time high
If this resistance zone is also dynamically overcome, a march through to the next price target at USD 55,817 can be planned. In the medium term, the next overriding price target at USD 57,998 will come into view. Here, increased profit-taking is again to be expected. Only if investors manage to sustainably break through this resistance level and stabilize the price above it, is a subsequent rise to the high at 59,470 USD conceivable. Should the investors manage to crack the psychological 60,000 USD mark and send the BTC price towards 61,771 USD, the chance for an attack towards the all-time high increases. If the bull camp also manages to approach and even overcome USD 64,896 in the coming months, a follow-through rise to the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 67,416 can be planned. If Bitcoin does not turn around here, the next price target will be found in the purple resistance zone between USD 69,660 and USD 70,856. In this zone, Bitcoin should initially bounce downwards and perform a consistency test of the old all-time high. If it manages to stabilise above the current all-time high, the chance of a march through towards USD 70,000 and beyond increases noticeably. The cryptocurrency could then head for the maximum target range between USD 76,472 and USD 77,678.
scenario (Bitcoin price)
The bears have been trying to put up more resistance since reaching USD 50,000. Already since yesterday, the RSI and the MACD indicator have been indicating the first signals of weakness. A drop below USD 47,070 and subsequently also below USD 44,147 would therefore be an important partial success. If Bitcoin then even slips below the support at 42,923 USD and breaks through the super-trend, it will once again come to a showdown. In addition to the EMA50 (orange), the lower Bollinger band also runs at 41,321. Since this is currently trending upwards, an immediate break of this mark is not to be expected. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin falls to USD 40,585, the bulls can be expected to fight back again. This is also where the EMA200 (blue) currently runs. An abandonment of this moving support would have a signal effect and could mean the short-term end of the bullish rally. If this area is abandoned and Bitcoin subsequently falls back below the support lines at 39,240 USD and 38,537 USD, the bears will gain further strength.
The uptrend is wobbling
<p>The downward momentum will increase and lead the BTC price to the 23 Fibonacci retracement at 37,321. If the bears manage to break through this support, the correction will gain further strength and activate the next relevant price target at USD 36,643. If this support level is also sustainably undercut, the correction will extend to at least USD 34,899. If the bulls do not get back on the floor here either, a correction extension to USD 33,355 is likely. Just below this level is the 61 Fibonacci retracement, which was already fiercely contested in July 2021. A dynamic break of this support level should lead Bitcoin immediately back to USD 31,603. If the Bitcoin price also breaks through this support, the downward movement will extend to USD 31,010 or even USD 30,000.
For the time being, this progression low in the purple support area represents the maximum bearish price target. Only if the low of June 22 at USD 28,795 is undercut on the daily closing price, further significant price declines to at least USD 26,399 are conceivable. If the 38 Fibonacci retracement running here is dynamically undercut, the BTC price could correct through USD 25,000 to USD 23,887. However, as long as Bitcoin stabilises above USD 42,865, the perspective is to continue looking upwards.
Bitcoin dominance: breakout from sideways range should provide directional decision
After consolidating back to the trend channel bottom, bitcoin dominance has been trading in a tight range between 43.68 percent and 45.11 percentage points since August 15, 2021. As such, BTC dominance has been oscillating around the support line at 44.42 percent for the past 10 trading days and is currently unable to sustain a move in any direction. Currently, however, the trend is pointing more towards the south, as long as the dominance of the cryptocurrency runs below EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange), a decline towards 43.18 percent and below is to be classified as more likely.
BTC dominance: Bullish scenario
Despite the bitcoin rise cos market dominance could not recover sustainably. The constant dilution by new cryptocurrencies almost daily contributes significantly to this. Only when the red box is dynamically resolved to the upside and thus the EMA20 is also recaptured, the resistance at 45.71 percent comes back into view. This is also where the EMA50 is located. If this mark is also overcome and the blue resistance zone is subsequently left behind, the chart picture brightens somewhat. The resistance zone between 47.03 percent and 47.59 percentage points then comes into focus as the first target. Here, the super trend, the upper downward trend channel line and the green upward trend line are a bundle of potential hurdles. The upper Bollinger band is also currently trending in this area. If the 47.59 percent is sustainably breached, a march through to the orange resist zone is conceivable.
A break above the 48.67 percent activates as a target the course high from July 2021 at 49.24 percentage points. If the dominance does not turn south here either, a directional decision at the psychological mark at 50.01 percent is likely. Just above, the EMA200 (blue) at 50.32 percent is another important resistance level. A breakout above it activates the MA200 (green) at 50.97 percent as a potential target. Initially, the BTC dominance is likely to fail here. If it succeeds in breaking through both moving average lines in the medium term, a rise into the blue resistance zone between 52.17 percent and 53.16 percent is to be planned. The maximum price target for the time being is 54.23 percent. Since giving up this price level, bitcoin dominance did not make it back to this price level, so a breakout above it should be seen as highly unlikely.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
BTC dominance continues to retreat as suspected since the last analysis on August 11. If Bitcoin dominance promptly falls back below the support line at 44.42 percent and tests the lower edge of the formed range at 43.68 percent, a directional decision is expected. If BTC dominance gives up this support level, price targets at 43.18 percent, as well as 42.27 percent in particular, will activate. Bitcoin dominance will have to prove itself at this cross support of horizontal support line and trend channel lower edge. An abandonment of this price level brings the June 7 progression low at 41.22 percent into view.
A sustained outperformance by the altcoins could also cause this strong support to break. A drop back to the 40 percent mark is then conceivable. If the dominance of the cryptocurrency continues to weaken, the probability increases that the low for the year at 39.66 percent could also be tested and broken. A dynamic break of this support will take Dominance to the green support zone between 39.21 percent and 37.67 percent. For now, this area should be considered the maximum bearish price target.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are merely the analyst’s assessment.
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USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.85 euros.