Bitcoin price: 32,000 USD as a possible stepping stone towards the north

The bitcoin price continues to move within the trading range of the last few weeks. However, negative headlines from the crypto exchange caused increasing fear among investors in the last few trading days, which is reflected in a price drop of five percentage points on a weekly basis. Bitcoin dominance is able to shake off its weakness for the time being, gaining nearly six percentage points on a weekly basis.

Bitcoin (BTC): Should we plan for further setbacks?

BTC Price: $32,686 (Previous Week: $34,896)

Resistances/targets: 32,696 USD, 33,335 USD 34,899 USD, 36,643 USD, 38,108 USD, 39,240 USD, 40,585 USD, 41,321 USD, 43,030 USD, 44,147 USD, 44.878 USD, 47,070 USD, 48,222 USD, 51,307/50,305 USD, 53,005 USD, 54,077 USD, 55,817 USD, 57,998 USD, 59,470 USD, 61,771 USD, 64,896 USD

Supports: 31,603 USD, 31,010 USD, 30,000 USD, 28,716 USD, 27,563 USD, 26,391 USD, 23,887 USD, 22,222 USD, 21,892 USD, 19,884 USD,

Kursanalyse Bitcoin (BTC) KW26Kursanalyse Bitcoin (BTC) KW26

Price analysis based on the value pair BTC/USD on Coinbase

Bitcoin continues to lose ground and is currently trading around five percent lower than at the time of the previous week’s analysis. Only at the 23 Fibonacci extension of the last price movement, which is taken from the hourly chart, did the price bounce north at USD 31,603 in the last trading hours. The bulls are trying hard to prevent the break of the bear flag. Increasing problems with deposits and withdrawals on the world’s largest crypto exchange are currently causing growing uncertainty among European investors. As long as the Bitcoin price does not rise dynamically back above the resistance at USD 34,899, the downside risks will again prevail.

Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)

Any attempts by the buy side to sustainably break above the resistance at USD 34,899 will be shunned.lug failed in the last few trading days. Bitcoin repeatedly bounced off the EMA20 (red) towards the south and threatens to hit the lows from the previous month if the price continues to weaken. The bulls now have to lift the price back above the resistances at USD 32,696 and USD 33,335 in order to start a renewed rise towards the EMA20 (red). Only when the EMA20 (red) is overcome and the horizontal resistance line at 34,899 USD is also recaptured, will there be room to reach 36,643 USD.

At this key level, it will take real buying power from the bulls to turn the tables in their favor. In addition to the EMA50 (orange) and the high from June 29, the upper Bollinger band and the super trend in the daily chart are also located here. Therefore, a bounce in this area is to be expected for the time being. Only if the BTC price stabilizes significantly above this resistance level on the daily closing price, a subsequent rise towards USD 38,108, and especially USD 39,240 is conceivable. This is where the EMA200 (blue) is located. In addition, the bitcoin price has repeatedly bounced southwards here in the recent past. If the breakout above this resistance succeeds, USD 40,585 will come into view as a target. Since May 19, investors have not been able to move Bitcoin above this price level on a daily closing basis.

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Price performance if the USD 40,000 level is regained

A breakout above this resistance, including a subsequent overcoming of the June 15 high at USD 41,321, activates the next price target at USD 43,030. This is currently the upper edge of the bearish flag formation. If the bulls also manage to break through this resist dynamically, the range between USD 44,147 and USD 44,878 comes into view as a medium-term upward target. In addition to several lows from February 2021, the MA200 (green) is also located here. A rebound must therefore be firmly planned. Above USD 44,878, the Bitcoin chart offers opportunities for a subsequent rise towards USD 47,070. This is the important breakout level of the current correction wave. A sustained breakout would offer room to 48,222 USD.

If this resistance is also broken through, a march back above the psychological USD 50,000 mark to USD 50,327 is likely. A rise to the next strong resistance level at USD 51,307 is also conceivable. In the medium term, a price increase to 53,005 USD and 53,210 USD is not excluded. If the bitcoin price does not buckle significantly here, subsequent rises to USD 54,077 or even USD 55,817 are also possible. The maximum price target for the coming period is still USD 57,998. Only when Bitcoin stabilizes sustainably above this resistance level does the probability of a follow-through to USD 61,771 and beyond increase. However, it is currently impossible to predict when investors can plan for a retest of the all-time high at 64,896 USD.

Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)

The sell side currently seems to have a firm grip on the rudder. The bears did not allow a sustainable rise back above the EMA20 (red) and in turn ensured the formation of lower highs and lows. Although the support level at USD 31,010 was not reached this morning, the chart currently speaks a clear language. As long as Bitcoin continues to trade below USD 34,899 and is already bouncing downwards between USD 33,355 and 34,000, lower prices are only a matter of time. If it manages to undercut the daily low at 31,603 and also break through the support at 31,010 USD, there will be a renewed showdown at 30,000 USD. This is also supported by the bending of the lower Bollinger band, which is currently opening again towards the south. If there is a retracement to the 30,000 USD, the probability of a renewed breakout scenario on the downside increases noticeably.

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If Bitcoin undershoots the 30,000 USD level on the daily closing price, a drop to at least 28,716 USD is to be expected. Investors should also not be surprised by a price slump to the next price target at USD 27,563. If there is no bullish countermovement at this support, the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 26,391 comes into view. Stronger resistance from the buyer camp is to be expected here. If, on the other hand, this support level is abandoned on the daily closing price, a trend continuation in the direction of 23,887 USD is to be planned. A price collapse to the support area between USD 22,222 and USD 21,892 would then be conceivable. The chances of a retest of the all-time high from 2017 increase significantly as a result. USD 19,884 is therefore conceivable as a maximum bearish price target. From a chart perspective, this would be a storybook price action.

Bitcoin dominance: trend channel lower edge firmly in view

Kursanalyse Bitcoin-Dominanz (BTC-Dominanz) KW26Kursanalyse Bitcoin-Dominanz (BTC-Dominanz) KW26

Bitcoin dominance based on values from Cryptocap shown

The trading range of BTC dominance continues to narrow. After a correction in the previous week, the reserve currency’s dominance was able to gain again in the last few trading days, rising to the cross resistance of the super trend and trend channel lower edge at 47.03 percent today, Wednesday morning, July 14. With this, bitcoin dominance is also increasingly transitioning into a directionless sideways phase. On the downside, the cross support from the green uptrend line and the lower Bollinger band at 44.42 percent has a price-limiting effect.

BTC dominance: Bullish scenario

If BTC Dominance manages to break through the 47.03 percent area on the daily closing price, there is further upside potential. EiA break of the super-trend represents a new buy signal and could lead the dominance of the cryptocurrency towards the trend highs at 48.25 percent and 48.67 percent. If the BTC dominance can subsequently stabilize within the downtrend channel and dynamically overcome the resistance at 48.67 percent, a follow-through rise to the upper edge of the orange resistance area at 50.01 percent can be planned. This is the next important resistance level consisting of the upper edge of the trend channel and the horizontal resistance line. Only when this area is breached upwards on the day’s closing price will the next important resistance level at 52.19 percent come into view as a target.

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In the grey resistance area, the EMA200 (blue), which continues to drop sharply, is located. In the first attempt, a breakout is not to be expected. Only if it manages to sustainably leave this moving resistance behind and also overcome the 53.16 percent, the chances of a further rising BTC dominance increase. As a result, a march through to the horizontal pink resistance line at 54.23 percent would be conceivable. If bitcoin dominance does not bounce south here, a follow-through rise towards 55.30 percentage points is to be planned. This is the MA200 (green), which currently represents the maximum price target for the coming trading weeks.

BTC dominance: Bearish scenario

If, on the other hand, BTC dominance bounces downwards again and fails to break through the 47.03 percent level, support at 45.71 percent will come back into view. An abandonment of this price level is likely to take bitcoin dominance immediately back to the cross support at 44.42 percentage points. This is where another directional decision will occur. As long as BTC dominance does not drop below this key level, it could make another attempt to rise. On the other hand, if this support is sustainably abandoned, this is a clear bearish sign. Further declines to the blue horizontal support line at 43.18 percent would be likely. If the BTC dominance subsequently falls back below this support, the correction will initially extend towards 42.27 percent.

A correction to the monthly low at 41.22 percent would also be conceivable. In order to avert a renewed approach to the low for the year, however, a countermovement towards the north should begin here at the latest. If this does not succeed and the Bitcoin dominance continues to trend weakly, the area around 40 percent comes into view as a price target. The price trend for the coming period will be decided at the latest at the annual low at 39.66 percent. If this price level is breached on the daily closing price, a correction to the green support zone is likely. As a result, BTC dominance could target the maximum bearish price target at 37.67 percent. This support level is derived from the striking course low of January 2018. If bitcoin dominance does not turn north here, a fall back to the psychological 30 percent mark could not be completely ruled out this year.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely the analyst’s assessment.

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USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.84 euros.